Sacramento is ready for Gov. Alex Padilla.
The senior senator’s flirtation with a bid to succeed Gavin Newsom has riveted California’s political class since Vice President Kamala Harris took a pass, leaving the contest wide open and with a field bereft of any obvious star. Padilla is hardly regarded as electrifying, but to many Democratic operatives and dignitaries in the state Capitol, he is viewed as an intriguing option — underscoring the breadth and durability of the relationships he has formed during his steady rise in politics.
“Padilla is part and has been part of the Sacramento culture,” said Jodi Hicks, CEO & president of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California. “He came here very young and spent a lot of time with people and has deep relationships.”
Padilla does not command the clout or near-universal name recognition that Harris does, despite his decade in statewide office, and he lacks the sizzle of politicians like Newsom, a likely presidential contender who revels in ambitious policy swings and provocative statements.
But his profile soared after he was tackled for challenging Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem at a June news conference in Los Angeles, and the enthusiasm in Sacramento for his candidacy suggests he could draw on a reservoir of influential and deep-pocketed supporters — elected officials and interest group leaders who play an outsize role in steering endorsements and campaign cash.
Padilla would also be able to run for governor without forfeiting his Senate seat, since he’s not up for reelection until 2028.
The 2026 contest is California’s most competitive governor’s race in decades, and many Democrats are still searching for an alternative to former Rep. Katie Porter, who rose to prominence with her sharp questioning of corporate executives and government officials in Washington and is viewed by some as too progressive.
Porter has capitalized on Harris’ exit to vault into the polling lead. Some interest groups, funders and Democratic operatives have grown alarmed about Porter’s frontrunner status, propelling an effort to lure Padilla into the race. Porter herself predicted that more candidates would enter the field.
“There’s a lot of the chattering class of Sacramento who haven’t yet been enamored with some of the other candidates,” said Andrew Acosta, a Democratic political consultant who is not working for any of the contenders.
Porter is still a formidable candidate capable of securing critical backers, as an endorsement from the state’s Teamsters last week demonstrated. And Padilla’s closeness with California’s power brokers could allow opponents to depict him as overly cozy with an unaccountable establishment — a theme of Porter’s unsuccessful 2024 Senate run, in which she portrayed herself as an outsider. A Porter representative declined to comment for this story.
Beyond ideology or poll numbers, people who make their living in California’s Capitol see in Padilla predictability, someone they can work with. Many of them are already on a first-name basis with the senator, who spent eight years in the statehouse and six more as secretary of state before Newsom, a staunch ally, appointed him to the Senate.
The race already features numerous candidates with Sacramento ties, though none have emerged as the clear insider's favorite. Antonio Villaraigosa's tenure as Assembly speaker was nearly 30 years ago. Xavier Becerra served four years as the state attorney general, but the bulk of his elected career was based out of Los Angeles and Washington. Toni Atkins, a former speaker and Senate leader who only recently left the statehouse, is particularly well-regarded among Sacramento interest groups. But she has struggled to break out of the low single digits in polling.
To his boosters, Padilla offers a potent combination: a known quantity with the gravitas to break through a crowded field.
“This is an uncertain time for California, and Alex Padilla brings certainty and stability,” said Afrack Vargas, a Sacramento lobbyist who has known Padilla for nearly 30 years.
Word of Padilla exploring a run took hold last month. When he arrived in the capital city for the first time since he was appointed senator, he indicated publicly that he would leave open the possibility. The buzz animated a breakfast organized by labor groups that he attended, as well as a fundraiser hosted by a Sacramento lobbying firm and an intimate dinner with confidantes at K Street restaurant.
“He’s one of the heavyweights in California politics,” said Scott Wetch, an influential labor lobbyist who was in attendance. “Just the specter of him getting in has everyone’s attention.”
Meanwhile, Sacramento text chains were lighting up with gossip about a potential Padilla bid. Vargas, who served as the senator’s informal chauffeur around town that week, initially responded to the rumors with a flat “no.” Within days, he circled back to revise his answer to a more ambiguous, “eh?”
“Everyone he saw that day — either friend, or media or strangers — kept asking or encouraging him to run for governor, and he never said no,” said Vargas. “So the momentum kept building and building and continues today.”
For now, the Padilla boomlet remains a phenomenon confined to the Sacramento bubble. A statewide poll conducted by a prominent Sacramento organization last week found that even with Padilla included on the list of potential candidates, Porter was the survey respondents’ top pick.
The findings indicate that, unlike Kamala Harris, support for Padilla is not so commanding that he would immediately claim frontrunner status. But the senator was the second choice among those polled, despite not being a declared candidate, indicating he has room to grow should he jump in the race.
“He’s not the flashy choice,” said a member of the group that commissioned the survey, who was granted anonymity to describe internal polling. “For insiders, the excitement level is higher because we know who he is — a steady hand. In a chaotic political moment, that matters.”
A representative for Padilla declined to comment. The senator has largely deflected questions about his political future, declining to rule it out while saying he is focused on convincing voters to approve a new House map that would help California Democrats flip a half-dozen seats.
Yet the redistricting ballot campaign could also buoy Padilla’s post-November prospects. He is set to assume a central role, signing the official ballot argument and starring in a campaign ad that recounts federal agents tackling and handcuffing him after he questioned Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem about immigration raids in Los Angeles.
For many Californians, that moment clarified the stakes of a standoff with the federal government. Hicks said it also prompted a groundswell of goodwill for Padilla.
“Watching him on a national stage, watching him get tackled by agents,” she said, “Sacramento becomes a very small town.”
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