Indiana Fever battle Connecticut Sun in WNBA playoffs: preview, predictions, key matchups, and more

Photo by Michael Hickey/NBAE via Getty Images

Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell will make their postseason debut against DiJonai Carrington, Alyssa Thomas, and the Sun.

In what’s likely to be the matchup of the day, the Connecticut Sun host Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever in the opening round of the WNBA playoffs. There’s so much to unpack in this one — it’s Clark’s postseason debut, it’s a battle between a fast-paced offense and an elite defense — and between Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston, Alyssa Thomas, and Brionna Jones, a long list of All-Stars will be featured. The Sun are used to making the playoffs, while the Fever are doing so for the first time since 2016 — but none of that matters when the game tips off. Fittingly, Caitlin Clark’s postseason career begins exactly where her regular season career did, at the Mohegan Sun Arena.

Sun-Fever Playoff Schedule:

Game 1 will be in Connecticut on Sunday, September 22nd at 3pm (on ABC)
Game 2 will be in Connecticut on Wednesday, September 25th at 7:30pm (on ABC)
Game 3, if necessary, will be in Indiana on Friday, September 27th, time TBD (on ESPN2)

Regular Season Series: Connecticut won 3-1

Notable Players:

Sun: Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, Brionna Jones, DiJonai Carrington
Fever: Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston, Lexie Hull

Prediction: Sun in two (or Fever in three).

This series is probably the toughest first-round series to predict. The Sun have been the better team this season, and they’re far more experienced (and superior defensively). But the Fever actually have the better post-Olympic record, and the two hottest guards in the game (Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark are the second and third-leading scorers in the league since the Olympics, respectively).

Indiana has also found something with Lexie Hull in the starting lineup — she’s been a pest defensively, and finished year season with the second-best three-point percentage of any player in the WNBA. Aliyah Boston looked like a different player to close the year than she did in the early parts of the season.

Driving it all has been Caitlin Clark, who broke a record for most assists in a season — and in a game — by any player in WNBA history. Clark is the definitive Rookie of the Year, and has broken countless records in her first year in the WNBA, somehow exceeding the lofty expectations that were placed on her. How her regular season success will translate into the postseason remains to be seen.

Photo by Michael Hickey/NBAE via Getty Images

The Sun’s defensive backcourt is one of the best in the game — DiJonai Carrington, Ty Harris, and Marina Mabrey have all been stellar on that end, as has Veronica Burton off the bench. With the way Mitchell and Clark have been playing, it’ll be difficult to contain the Fever backcourt regardless of their defensive personnel — but the Sun have as good a chance to slow them down as anyone.

“They just pay really hard. They’re going to do some different things with ball screens, they’re going to trap some,” Caitlin Clark said. “They’re just going to be aggressive. The whole group, they know what they are doing. They play smart.”

The Fever still haven’t been great defensively, and they will have their hands full with a seasoned Sun team that has six players averaging double-figures: DeWanna Bonner (15 points per game), Marina Mabrey (14.9 points), Brionna Jones (13.7 points), DiJonai Carrington (12.7 points), Alyssa Thomas (10.6 points), and Tyasha Harris (10.5 points).

Connecticut still goes through stagnant spells offensively, but since acquiring Mabrey mid-season, they have one more solution to those those struggles. Mabrey has shot a team-best 42.4% from three since joining the Sun, and is a major key for them moving forward as the organization pursues a franchise-first WNBA title.

Things get tricky for Connecticut if they lose one of their two games at Mohegan — Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is going to be an incredibly boisterous playoff environments, and Indiana has fed off that crowd all season. If the Sun split the first two games, Indiana has home-court (and the momentum) heading into a deciding Game 3.

Key Question: Who has the edge in the battle between Aliyah Boston and Brionna Jones?

Both All-Star bigs have had great individual seasons: Boston averaged 14 points and 8.9 rebounds per game this year, while Jones averaged 13.7 points and 5.5 rebounds.

Who has the upper hand in this matchup will be a key determinant of the outcome; last time the two teams faced off, the Fever came away with a 4 point win, and Jones was held to just 2 points and 1 rebound in 30 minutes. Boston, meanwhile, finishing with 10 points, 8 assists, and 6 rebounds. Brionna Jones is likely going to need to be more impactful — as she has been all season — for the Sun to come out on top.