Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in three of the most important states that are key to winning the 2024 election, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll published Saturday.
The poll was conducted between Aug. 5-9 and asked likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin about their attitudes toward Harris and Trump. When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, Harris received 50 percent support to Trump’s 46 percent — a marked improvement compared to President Joe Biden’s performance against Trump in earlier Times polling. When third-party candidates and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are included in the race, Harris remains ahead by 5 percentage points in Michigan, 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 6 percentage points in Wisconsin, with a fading Kennedy averaging just 5 percent support.
The new poll suggests that Harris has not only narrowed the gap against Trump nationally but is also pulling ahead in the crucial Blue Wall states as she rides a wave of momentum stretching into its third week. The poll was fielded largely in the same time frame that Harris energized crowds in the Midwest on a rapid-fire rally tour with her newly minted running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whom voters are still getting to know. Meanwhile, Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance from Ohio, are struggling to lock in a consistent and cogent message against their Democratic opponents.
The survey found that Harris is benefiting from a rise in popularity among voters in each state, while Trump’s favorability across the three states has seen a slight improvement compared to previous Times/Siena polls.
Between Harris’ numbers in Pennsylvania in July — a week before Biden dropped out — and now, the vice president has gained 8 percentage points in the state among independent voters, flipping Trump’s former 6 percentage-point advantage. She’s also narrowing the gap with Trump among white voters in Pennsylvania, garnering 47 percent support to Trump’s 49 percent in the state. The polling in Michigan and Wisconsin also broadly suggests that Harris is drawing more white voters into her column compared to Biden.
Across the likely electorate in the three states, Harris has a net-positive favorability rating, with 50 percent holding a “somewhat” or “very” favorable opinion of her, while 53 percent of respondents had a “somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable” view of Trump. Reviews of Harris’ political agenda were split, with 44 percent of likely voters saying Harris is too liberal or progressive, while another 44 percent said she is neither too liberal or progressive nor too moderate.
And in the biggest change in fortunes for the Democratic presidential candidate, Harris is not weighed down by the perceived traits that made Biden a deeply unpopular choice for the 2024 ticket. A majority of likely voters think she is honest, smart and fit to govern, as well as capable of bringing about the right kind of change to the country. Trump fares worse on all of those measures, though he is perceived as having a clear vision for the country, with 60 percent of likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin saying that sentiment applies to Trump “very” or “somewhat” well.
Notably, 47 percent of likely voters surveyed said that Trump would enact changes that would be “very bad” or “somewhat bad” for the country” if elected, compared to 37 percent of likely voters saying the same thing about Harris.
Compared to Times polling in May of a Biden-Trump race, a larger share of likely voters trust Harris on the issues related to the economy and abortion over Biden. The poll, which was conducted mostly after Walz was announced as Harris’ running mate, found that 33 percent of likely voters across Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin still have not heard of or do not have an opinion on him. However, he is viewed favorably by 39 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 28 percent — with significant popularity among 18- to 29-year-old voters — and is at an advantage compared to Vance among independent voters.
Democratic candidates in Senate races in each of the three states were also ahead of their Republican opponents, with Sen. Bob Casey up by 14 percentage points in Pennsylvania, Sen. Tammy Baldwin up by 7 percentage points in Wisconsin and Rep. Elissa Slotkin up by 3 percentage points in Michigan.
The New York Times/Siena College poll surveyed 1,973 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points when all states are included together.
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